I too have been researching the camp and rental business sales for the past 10 years or so, and in earnest the past 3 years as I am looking to purchase my own camp at present. Your overall assessment is dead on but not unusual for a buyer to overvalue what they are selling. Too often though their numbers are based on the emotional attachment and that search for the "angel buyer" who is willing to overpay because camps are in short supply and/or they are simply unrealistic about the value of their seasonal business. But when you run the numbers, the true valuation is substantially less. There is no bright line formula, but getting a fair appraisal of the land is the starting point. Because at the end of the day, the business is not worth nearly as much as the land, and you need the land as collateral for any bank financing. Most banks will not give you any money towards the purchase for the value of the business, so this ends up very much being a "land deal" with some additional value based on either cash flow or good will.
If you need some help putting together a deal of your own, I am happy to help and consult.
